We focus on today’s small .39 percent gain of the S&P500. Advances this small are rare. While they account for just 20 percent of all closes since the 1996 market low, their frequency during bull markets is near twice their rate during market declines.
Today’s diagram summarizes the details of their timing over the last five price cycles. Additionally it shows the almost identical advantage for gains on the following day; they also favor the three bull markets of recent times.
Using these characteristics to project the market’s future, yields the conclusion that we have been and are in a period of rising prices. Further, these statistics are consistent with our earlier reports that show recent market closes mirroring features common to earlier expansions.
As for tomorrow, the diagram shows that in the past gains occurred slightly more often than declines during bull markets. Losses during declines however, outnumbered increases almost three to one.
DJIA .18 percent
NASDAQ .41 percent
S&P500 .39 percent
