April 4, 2013 Seesaw Count Now at 11

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Prices have not moved in the same direction in more than two weeks. Today’s eleventh straight change is the first since 1981, more than 8000 trading days ago.

Our diagram provides a perspective by locating the 16 days when the S&P500 changed direction on eight or more days in a row.

The last previous time this happened was eleven years ago, at the beginning of the 2007/2009 bear market. Three other down-then-up runs occurred during the earlier, 2000/2003 decline.

The good news is that otherwise, these seesaws and rising prices happen simultaneously: six incidents are  seen during the bull markets of 1998/2000 and 2003/2007.

Contrary indications though result from considering market changes after these chains of daily ups and downs: seven, or nearly half, of these happenings preceded significant price declines.

 

DJIA                    .38  percent

NASDAQ            .20  percent

S&P500             .40  percent

 

eight or more direction changes in a row  sp500     04042013

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