December 11, 2012 Further Gains
The momentum continues, with the DJIA and the S&P500 moving higher for the fifth session in a row. The NASDAQ stayed positive for the second day. Whereas only four other days closed with this pattern in the last 13 years, we focus instead on the size of todays gains. With some 460 days in this century moving as much, or more, in this century, their occurrences allow provide an outlook for the future.
First, they happen more frequently during declining markets, accounting for 18 percent and 21 percent of the days during the 2000/2003 and 2007/2009 bear phases; but only 10 percent and 14 percent of the 2003/2007 and since the 2009 bottom.
Second, gains on the following days, however, dominate the bull markets, accounting for 44 percent and 42 percent of the bull market next days. They amount to less than 31% of the down market closes.
DJIA .60 percent
NASDAQ 1.18 percent
S&P500 .65 percent