Todays decline, the second in a row, combined with three drops deeper than -2 percent, over the last six trading days, compels exploring where is the market; and will recent developments in this country and abroad road block the continuation of the price recovery begun some 15 months ago.Have the European deficits and the Euro decline downgraded the basic structure of corporate earnings and values? Will planned government inquiries and the law changing activity of Congress debase the trading environment and the readiness to participate in, and accept these new uncertainties tainting the capital markets? Much time, unfortunately will have to pass prior to the answer. Yet trading and portfolio decisions, affecting us in the future, have to be made now. Technical analysis, therefore, provides an opportunely to fill this information gap. Naturally, projecting future price activity comes with its own caveats but still it generates an up-to-date perspective.Accordingly, consider todays trading. The closing pattern of the three indices is -2/+1/-1, or a second decline, following Fridays increase, after Thursdays steep loss. This combination has occurred 45 times before, with 23 of these since 2000. The diagram indicates their positions and the percentage change of each point.The vertical lines divide the plot into decline, advance, decline and the current advance. However, their distribution fails to provide differing patterns when prices rise and when they fall.Yet an inference can be gained from considering the median price change during each period. The median of these numbers, posted on the lower edge of the diagram, reveal the daily losses significantly more severe in the down periods than during the 2003/2007 price advance. While the single previous occurrence since 2009 was -1.89 percent, todays loss of -.55 percent implies a growth, rather than a waning environment.
DJIA - .55 percentNASDAQ - .91 percent S&P500 - .66 percent