May 5, 2009
The three indices, in the red all day, lost only fractions at the close. The NASDAQ was off -.54 percent, the S&P500 fell -.38 percent while the DJIA lost a mere -.19 percent. It was the first down close in five days for the NASDAQ; in three days for the DJIA and the S&P500.
Prices have been on the rise since March 9, some 40 trading days ago. So far, this downturn hit a bottom on November 21, 2008, and then rose for 27 days, before hitting a top on January 2. The next phase, a decline, lasted 44 days, and then the current upswing started.
The last price cycle that ended in 2003, recovered after touching three successive bottoms. That chronology was 21 days from the first bottom before falling for the next 33 days. The next climb took 66 days, followed by a 38-day decline. In sum, it took 158 trading days, and three bottoms before the next bull cycle started.
The current cycle is only 111 trading days old; it is currently on the rise after hitting two bottoms. Moreover, only 40 days have passed since the last turn around, compared to the 66 days of the 2000/2003 cycle.
As for todays decline, it defied history, which has triple the increases as declines. The record for tomorrow, in the past, is distributed more equally with losses occurring almost as frequently as advances.
DJIA -.19 percent
NASDAQ -.54 percent
S&P500 -.38 percent