By rising .27 percent today, the NASDAQ recorded a rare gain on every one of the last five trading days. In fact just 31 of these occurred since January 2000, while todays close is already the sixth time for this event in 2007.
Tomorrow will bring either another increase or the first decline in six trading days. In the past, the NASDAQ fell 14 times after posting five straight gains, with the loss averaging 1.03 percent.
The likelihood of a sixth straight gain is slightly better, with 17 such closes since January 2000.
While the odds, or past experiences, of these runs, are quite similar –.88 percent for another increase compared to .72 percent for a decline the magnitude of the downturns in the past have averaged 1.03 percent, whereas the typical increase was limited to .53 percent.
Five of the declines exceed minus one percent, with the steepest drop as much as minus 3.13 percent.
The record on the positive side is not as encouraging: while there have been four increases exceeding one percent on the sixth straight close, the largest gain is just 1.83 percent.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 10th, 2007 at 12 112007000000Wed, 10 Oct 2007 23:48:28 +0000 and is filed under Market Report. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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