USMarketView

May 12, 2011               Third Direction Change This Week

 

Prices advanced today after declining on Wednesday. This down-and-up cluster followed Monday and Tuesday’s gains. The result of this fluctuation leaves prices just a little ahead of Monday’s close. The pattern of one day up and the following day down, has repeated 202 times since the end of 1999.

 

The pattern going back to Tuesday, two days ago, is +1/-1/+3, a much rarer combination, occurring on 23 closes overall; of these, just 13 came in this century.  

 

Considering tomorrow’s market movement based on the record of today’s and Wednesday changes over the last 12 years, the odds are just about even for another increase and a decline.

 

However, adding Monday’s history to the projection platform, the chances of a declines and another price turnaround on Friday are 8:5 for the DJIA and the S&P500. The NASDAQ price change, however, has almost the same likelihood for advance as for decline.

 

DJIA               .52 percent

NASDAQ        .63 percent

S&P500           .49 percent

This entry was posted on Thursday, May 12th, 2011 at 12 072011000000Thu, 12 May 2011 19:18:50 +0000 and is filed under Market Report. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.