April 12, 2011 Fourth Straight Decline
A rare result indeed that the DJIA*, the NASDAQ, and the S&P500 fell four days in a row. The record shows only 18 other days, since the end of 1999, with this pattern, and the last occasion occurred eight months ago, in August 2010.
The diagram identifies these days with solid circle. Whereas four of these happened at the 2003 bottom, and one hit the low point exactly in 2007, these matches do not insure that todays combination qualifies as a projector of higher prices ahead.
However, it does not signal a fall in prices; certainly not a single major decline happened after four days of straight declines.
Therefore, while there is no guarantee that prices will not fall in the near future, such an outcome would not be a result of, nor would have been signaled by, todays four-in-a-row negative close.
DJIA - .95 percent
NASDAQ - 96 percent
S&P 500 - .78 percent
* Refer to yesterdays post to see how we treated that -.01 percent change of the DJIA.