March 31, 2011 Market Leaves Repeats Behind
Prices declined for -.25 percent the DJIA and -.18 percent for the S&P500; the NASDAQ moved .15 percent higher. Since the last close for this combination occurred last November, today ends the recent sequence of pattern replications.
Combining todays and yesterdays combination of changes yields a history of 50 repeats before 2000 and 10 since the end of 1999. Most of these later closes, 7 out of 10, came while prices were in the decline of 2000/2003. Thus, todays pattern implies an end to the current recovery.
As for tomorrow, the last day of the first quarter, the past repeats are distributed almost equally between six increases and four declines.
DJIA -.25 percent
NASDAQ .15 percent
S&P500 -.18 percent