March 22, 2011 Modest Declines
The DJIAs loss of -.15 percent ranks as the 227th smallest since 2000. Similarly, the NASDAQ, off by -.31 percent, had only 271 lesser days, whereas the -.36 percent S&P500 showing comes in as number 423.
Todays retreat by the three indices is the first decline after three increases in a row. While 61 previous days have the identical pattern, only 21 occurred since January 2000. The diagram shows these last 21 as dominant when the trend of prices is rising.
It also reveals that declines are far more frequent than increases on the following day. Twelve of the thirteen next-days during the 2003/2007 recovery came in negative, while the present era of rising prices two increases offsetting two declines. Overall, only five positives followed this -1/+3 pattern since 2000, whereas 16 declined.
The projection published yesterday anticipated correctly todays losses; however, since it was based on just two previous repeats, it has little, if any, statistical significance.
Note: Some of Japans stock indices advancing near 4 percent seem to signal relief that the situation seems to remain stable.
DJIA -.15 percent
NASDAQ -.31 percent
S&P500 -.36 percent