Even though the DJIA moved higher, posting its 8th successive increase, its move was limited to just .06 percent. Meanwhile the NASDAQ and the S&P500 retreated, posting their first decline after four straight gains. It is too early to tell if the rally will continue, slow or go into reverse. And at this date, its useful to assess the run up that started at the end of last August, 114 trading days ago.
To this end, we use the rate of change in prices in 114-day intervals over the past. The diagram below indicates the NASDAQ 114 day rate of change with an X, while a solid line presents the daily closing price since August 26, 2010.
It is encouraging to realize that so far, to this point, the current NASDAQ 114 day rate of change is only the fourth largest since 2000. If it were the largest ever, it would require a very optimistic outlook to expect prices to continue expanding at current rates.
Furthermore, not only does the present 114 day rate of change stands far below its end of 2010 peak, it has been ascending from the low reached just a few weeks ago. In sum, then, a cautious outlook of further advances seems realistic: the information currently available fails to contradict it.
DJIA .06 percent
NASDAQ -. 29 percent
S&P500 -.28 percent