With the NASDAQ up .28 percent today, it has recovered 96.4 percent of its 2007 high. The gap is widening between these indices as the DJIA, off -.24 percent, and the S&P500 closing down -.21 percent, moved to 82.6 percent and 81.4 percent of their previous tops.
Consequently, the DJIA now trails the NASDAQ recapture rate by 14 percentage points. However, at the beginning of last November, the DJIA gap was only 10 percentage points. Similarly, the S&P500s recovery, now at 81 percent stands 15 percentage points behind the NASDAQ. Last November it was only 13 percentage points behind.
Todays pattern two gains in a row for the NASDAQ while the other two averages posted a single day decline while rare has repeated 35 times since the beginning of 2000. Yesterdays count was 4 and the day before was 7, while the pattern on Monday was its 200thduplication.
We note that unfamiliar configurations never have the same reliability as often-repeated patterns.
The estimate for today, based on yesterdays pattern, was negative for each of these three indices, whereas the call for Friday is positive by a factor of two to one.
DJIA - .24 percent
NASDAQ .28 percent
S&P500 -.21 percent