January 5, 2011 DJIA Pattern Diverges from Mainstream


The DJIA, closing higher for the fourth session in a row while the NASDAQ and the S&P500 maintain their
alternate up and down days, continues to generate patterns seldom seen before. As a result, the number  of similar,  previous data points becomes smaller.

For example, today’s combination has occurred just 12 other times, with four of these happening
since the beginning of 2000. This is down from yesterday’s frequency of 26 overall and 7 in the past decade.

Focusing attention on the four closes experienced earlier, reveals they share a common positioning: they
appear near a local top that leads to a substantial decline in prices. The diagram identifies these four instances, plus today’s close, with a circle.

 

 

 jan-5-2011-s-up-d-up-3-n-up-1.gif

 

 

While fundamental changes in business, economic and financial circumstances could be inducing this
pattern, the basis of our projections relies on the purely technical repeats of daily patterns and their association with market and price turnarounds.

As for the day following, yesterday’s pattern suggested that prices would rise today. Continuing with this scheme, note that on all previous repeats of today’s configuration, prices fell on the next day.


DJIA                                    .27  percent

NASDAQ                            .78  percent

S&P500                              .50  percent

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