March 24, 2009
Prices backed off today, as is usual, following a huge gain; the NASDAQ gave back -2.40 percent, while the S&P500 declined -2.02 percent and the DJIA lost -1.49 percent. With a record of only three gains exceeding yesterdays increases, the past record reveals losses dominate the following day. Indeed, only one positive close exists, and that is the .47 percent increase for the NASDAQ last October. Whereas the losses ranged from -.20 percent to -4.49 percent on the other trading days.
Hence, todays performance is more typical than rare, and ought not to cause extraordinary alarm.
If the recent history of these indices is a guide, then the expectations for tomorrow are less certain. While the positive days outnumber the losing days, the difference is narrow; 273 gains compared to 215 losses. However, the range of positive changes -as large as 7.94 percent for the NASDAQ- is larger than the losses, which go as deep as -6.20 percent.
DJIA -1.49 percent
NASDAQ -2.40 percent
S&P500 -2.02 percent