May 22, 2014 — Gains Continue

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+2 +2 +2  after -1 -1 -1 after +2 +2 +2   05222014

Prices increased again, yielding a pattern of [+2, -1, +2] -that is, two gains aftr one decline, following two advances. This combination is associated more with bull markets than when prices are trending down. The diagram locating these days reveals a major cluster during the 2003/2007 expansion. It shows also a complete absence of this pattern in the 2000/2003 bear market. Yet today’s pattern is not solely a feature of bull markets: the greatest frequency happened while prices were heading down after the 2007 market top.

The outlook for tomorrow is mixed: in the past prices moved higher on 14 days while they fell 11 times. Yet, they increased three times as often as they fell during the last two price expansions.

DJIA .06 percent
NASDAQ .55 percent
S&P500 .24 percent
c max moszer

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