July 16, 2013 Finally, A Slight Decline

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Not unexpected after the NASDAQ and S&P500 streak of eight straight positive sessions, prices moved down today.  Yet the set back was quite modest: just 55 other days experienced smaller percentage losses over the more than 4,400 trading days since 1996.

Looking at tomorrow, in the past, prices moved higher just about as often as they fell on the day after a single losing session.  Yet the percentage size of positive changes exceeded the negative ones.   

Our diagram shows this next day changes distribution for the S&P500 over the last three price expansions.  While the median change came to .15 percent, the range of next day changes stretched all the way from -6.9 percent to 7.1 percent.

 

DJIA                       -.21 percent

NASDAQ                -.25 percent

S&P500                 -.37 percent

 

-1 -1 -1 after +8  +3  +8   histogram  if sfr== -1  and expansion=1           07162013

 

 

 

 

c max moszer

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