It’s the distribution rather than its rarity that draws our attention to today’s close. Nine of the 26 closes occurred during the 2000/2003 bear market, while another nine happened in the, since March 2009, current bull market.
Further, today’s gains fall short of the average daily advance history of this combination. The DJIA gained .39 percent, whereas its mean for these days is plus 1.21 percent.
Then consider the enigmatic waves of these days: one stretches over the 2000/2003 decline, another lasts over a recovery and continues during the following decline, and the current run of two in 2011, six in 2012, and today’s and last month’s occurrences.
Finally, large percentage changes are the norm for, and dominate, the following days. With these ranging from minus 2.47 percent to plus 1.91 percent for the S&P500, and minus 4.40 percent to plus 2.87 percent for the NASDAQ, we pass on projecting what tomorrow will bring.
DJIA .39 percent
NASDAQ .78 percent
S&P500 .67 percent
