It was an exceptional day, posting small changes and an unusual pattern. Adding just .04 percent, the S&P500 closed up for the sixth day in a row, but the DJIA and the NASDAQ declined, off -.02 percent and -.28 percent.
There are just three other days in this century posting such minor changes with two happening this year: on May 23 and November 13.
That prices moved higher after both days, generates optimism – allowing projections of continuing price appreciation.
Yet forecasts with only two data points shriek for caution. With the entire basis of forecasting depending on numerous observations, robust statistical measures provide objective measures of faith. Indeed, our daily analysis is based on counting repeat performances. Accordingly, the spate of recent unique, or unusual, patterns dampens its reliability.
DJIA -.02 percent
NASDAQ -.28 percent
S&P500 .04 percent