September 11, 2012 Third Direction Change in Three Days
Prices moved higher, following yesterday’s decline, resulting in an up-after-down pattern that has played on 213 other days in this century. The diagram locates these earlier closes and reveals these to be distributed quite distinctly over the two bear and two bull markets of the past 13 years.
While their frequency in the 2000/2003 decline was about 4.6 percent of those 740 closes, it rose to 9.3 percent during the 2007/2009 losses. Similarly, they amounted to 8.6 percent of the earlier bull market and then declined to 5.8 percent during the current expansion.
It is not clear why the second bear market had more than double the proportion as during the earlier one; nor why the current, second bull phase has only half the share of the 2003/2007 bull market.
Turning to the following day, in the past, gains and losses occurred with about the same frequency. Indeed the DJIA had 108 gains against 106 losses. The NASDAQ increases of 115 were slightly ahead of the 109 losses, while the S&P500 had 107 increases against 107 decreases.
Accordingly, we have no projection for tomorrow’s market, and for the same reason, we had none for today.
DJIA .52 percent
NASDAQ .02 percent
S&P500 .31 percent
