The NASDAQ enjoyed a 3.0 percent advance, followed by the S&P500′s 2.49 percent and the DJIA 2.20 percent. It was the best day since June 6, 18 trading days ago, and raises the question what of tomorrow – will prices increase further, and if so, by how much. Or, will prices decline after this large gain?
The table above shows the changes, since the beginning of 2000, on the day following changes as large as today.
The S&P500 posted just about the same number of advances as declines -48 further gains and 47 losses. Further, it experienced about twice as many changes deeper than minus one percent as gains larger than plus one percent. A total of 27 worse than minus one percent and just 14 better than plus one percent.
The DJIA shows an almost identical history: 30 declines worse than minus one percent compared to just 20 gains larger than one percent.
The NASDAQ history presents a better history, with 73 advances compared to 67 declines. Yet losses deeper than minus one percent exceeded similar gains 38 to 33.
Thus the footprints of the past do not support another large advance for tomorrow.
DJIA 2.20 percent
NASDAQ 3.00 percent
S&P500 2.49 percent