Prices backed off yesterday’s highs as the market reversed itself for the fifth time in as many days. This seesaw pattern is more typical of down moves than of rising valuations.
The diagram reveals that such series occurred once in twenty days during the 2007/2009 decline; in stark contrast, that frequency was just once every 45 days in the 1996/2000 bull market. That ratio is once per 34 days in the current, since 2009, expansion.
As for tomorrow, the chances for another reversal are about the same as for a further decline. In the past, positive days followed this series almost as often as negative sessions. The proportion of next-day price increases ranges from 44 percent in the 2000/2003 decline to 65 percent in the 1996/2000 rise.
DJIA -.17 percent
NASDAQ -.13 percent
S&P500 -.13 percent
