The market continues its recovery –the S&P500 now stands at 99.3 percent of its January 15 high- and also sticks to closing patterns that occur typically during bull markets.
Four straight up sessions are rare with just 37 in the 4,500 sessions since early 1995, and as our diagram reveals, all but three happened when prices were trending higher. In fact, none are seen during the 2007/2009 bear market.
Though prices are near to recapturing their all-time highs of January 15, this recent strength does not guarantee a resumption of this bull market. In fact, there was a surge ten days after the after the March 2000 top that returned the S&P500 to 99.3 percent of its high – but then reality set in, as prices fell for the following 700 trading days.
Looking at tomorrow, the chances of a fifth straight up day are not slim but at 50 percent, for that is the proportion of five up days in a row in the past.
DJIA 1.22 percent
NASDAQ 1.03 percent
S&P500 1.11 percent
