May 22, 2013 Another Hiccup

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It’s now five days that prices changed direction from the day before – that happened just 20 other times since 1996, in the near 4,000 trading days of the last four bear and bull markets.

Yet the very last occurrence happened on April 8, just 32 trading days ago.

Prices changed direction again on April 9, the following session, and they continued higher for the next three days.

We find no correlation between these seesaws and market direction; they happen infrequently and both when prices are rising and when prices are on the decline.  In total, they represent less than .01 percent of all trading days.

 Yet note that half of these happen just before and just after the market changes direction. One stands before the 2000 top, another before the following bottom of 2003. Two happened just before the 2007 high and three shortly thereafter. Then consider the 2009 low: two happenings before and one after. Then the last happening was in early April just prior to that earlier correction,.

Today, this bull market’s 1,057th day is two days short of the 1996-2000 expansion, though it is far short of the 1,154 days of the 2003-2007 growth period.

 

 

DJIA              -.52 percent

NASDAQ       -1.11 percent

S&P500        -.83 percent

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