What are the chances for a further decline tomorrow after today’s losses? Are they different during price expansions, like the current bull market?
So far this year there have been 16 such cycles, and the news for the following day is good: 11 increases and only 5 further losses for the DJIA and the NASDAQ. The S&P500’s record is a bit better, with 12 gains and 4 declines,
The statistics for the last three bull markets and two bear markets reveal almost no difference in the direction of next day prices during periods of rising and falling prices.
Advances on the following day occurred between 52 and 63 percent in the last three expansions; they ran between 47 and 58 percent during the two earlier price declines.
That means, given the ongoing bull market, a good chance for a recovery and higher prices tomorrow.
DJIA -.28 percent
NASDAQ -.18 percent
S&P500 -.50 percent