The TV news reports of a second day of record DJIA high glossed over the small gain of a mere .30 percent. They also missed two significant facts: DJIA gains this small amount to only 15 percent of all positive changes in this century, but these occur 80 percent of the time when the market is on the rise.
Todays pattern -four successive advances by the DJIA and the S&P500 while the NASDAQ declines- happened just eight other times since January 2000. The diagram reveals two just before the market top of 2007. There is another, occurrence near the earlier 2000 high.
The last repeat happened on August 2012, then the DJIA fell on the following day.
The DJIA as well as the NASDAQ and the S&P500 fell on the next day more often than advancing, yet only eight observations over more than 3,000 trading days make this a fact but not a projection.
We report, with the same reservation, that five of these eight days happened while the market was moving higher.
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DJIA .30 percent
NASDAQ -.05 percent
S&P500 .11 percent
