January 25, 2013 The S&P500 Continues Higher . . . Watch the DJIA

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Yes, the S&P500 finally crossed the 1500 barrier on its eighth straight advance, but the DJIA actually performed much better so far this year. The DJIA added 3.60 percent in the last 17 trading days, almost a third more than the S&P500’s 2.78 percent. And note an oddity; both indices surpassed the NASDAQ; which added just 1.20 percent in the same period.

This DJIA advantage differs from the record, when its performance lagged both the NASDAQ and the S&P500. The average 17 days change, since the bottom of March 2009, is 1.26 percent for the DJIA, less than the NASDAQ’s 1.61 percent and lower than the 1.35 percent of the S&P500.

Similarly, during the 2003/2007 expansion, the DJIA’s 17 day average gain was .93 percent, lagging the S&P500’s .99 percent and the NASDAQ’s 1.2 percent.

These comparisons reveal the market’s torrid pace since the beginning of this year. However, the NASDAQ has nor shared this strength, though its recovery occurred much earlier. And with its recapture standing already at 112 percent of the 2007 top, this lag may seem a source of strength.

The outlook for the following day is less optimistic. But that should not be surprising, with the DJIA’s positive string now at six days; there are just five occasions when this index moved up seven days in a row.   

 

DJIA                                   .51 percent

NASDAQ                           .62 percent

S&P500                             .54 percent

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