Prices rebounded today following two negative closes, thus recapturing the gains of the years opening day. We focus on the pattern of one advance following the losses of the first two days of the week. There have been 73 other such combinations in this century, and while prices increased again on the following 53 percent of the time, the daily changes vary widely in size.
Moreover, declines outnumbered gains 12 to 8 since the low point of March 2009. Further, daily losses ranged from -.07 percent to -2.02 percent in this period, while the advances ran from .41 to 3.80 percent. The previous 2003/2007 bull market experienced similar disparities, with gains running from .05 percent to 3.45 percent and lows between -.23 and -1.91 percent.
Even wider disparities exist in the downturns: daily losses as small as -.07 percent stand next to drops of -1.50 percent in the 2000/2003 decline as well as -.61 percent to -6.12 percent during the 2007/2009 retreat.
Such wide disparities preclude meaningful projections based upon this pattern.
DJIA .46 percent
NASDAQ .45 percent
S&P500 .27 percent