December 24, 2012 Second Decline in a Row

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Prices fell moderately and losses were much smaller than the near one point decline of the day before. Indeed, of 171 two-in-a-row losses in this century, only five closes declined less than today. By contrast, nine closes of this pattern dropped more than three percent, with five clustered between October and November 2008.

But we find a more optimistic outlook by considering only those days on which price declines are in today’s range, that is negative but larger than the DJIA’s -.39 percent, the NASDAQ’s -.28 percent and the S&P500’s -.24 percent.

All five of these closes shared the good tidings of the 2003/2007 expansion. The diagram shows these points, as well as today’s, for the S&P500.

Considering all of the earlier 171 days with today’s pattern, slightly less than a half, or 71 of the following days saw advances for the DJIA, the NASDAQ and the S&P500.

 

DJIA                                   -.39 percent

NASDAQ                           -.28 percent

S&P500                             -.24 percent

 

 

 

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