With prices now experiencing their second pause, its worthwhile to review the record. Weve assembled the history of the on-going, since 2009, expansion and also that of the 2003/2007 and the earlier, 1998/2000 bull markets.
In term of age, the current market has trended higher for 930 trading days, while withstanding several reversals. Thus we can judge it young compared to the 1,154 days of the 2003/2007 period, or conclude that it is due for a reversal based on the previous, 395 day long 1998/2000 experience.
Our diagrams showing these three expansions support the view that the earlier, shorter period does not parallel the current market; then prices climbed more steeply than in the later periods. We know also that internet/computer technology and expectations pushed prices up more rapidly than the market could sustain.
Accordingly, the current expansion is relatively young.
Further, the closing price diagrams of the NASDAQ and of the S&P500 show many similarities of price increases and price decreases, for the current and previous expansion; they are, moreover, far different than the 1998/2000 experiences.
There is a caution though to temper this positive outlook. Namely that todays prices are double those of the 2009 trough. The NASDAQ now stands at 225 percent of its 2009 low, while it reached just 220 percent at the end of the 2007 expansion. Similarly, the S&P500 is at 201 percent compared to 195 percent in 2007.
DJIA .37 percent
NASDAQ .57 percent
S&P500 .48 percent
