July 19, 3012 Rapid Price Changes Unusual
You’re right if you feel surprised at the recent spurt of volatility in prices. Indeed prices have been fluctuating more frequently in this recovery than in the last, 2003/2007 boom.
The diagram reveals substantially larger variance of daily price changes when values are heading down. Notice the two declines have variances five to seven times as large as during thr 2003-2007 expansion.
Thus it is surprising that our current expansion, since March 2009, displays double the variability of that last bull market.
Anther way to interpret this difference is to accept as a fact that down markets fluctuate more than up markets. From this supposition, it is a logical step to view these recent fluctuations as a signal that the current bull market is nearing its end.
