July 5, 2012 A Rising Prices Pattern
Declines in the DJIA and the S&P500 while the NASDAQ just about broke even with a .03 point advance greeted the market after the July 4 holiday. But our focus is on the pattern of closes between Wednesday of last week and today: that is, five trading days ago.
Then, all three averages moved higher for the second day in a row; accordingly we consider the pattern of ‘two successive gains posted five days ago.’
These total 216 since the beginning of 2000, and prices moved higher on the following day slightly more than half the time, for a total of 51.4 percent.
However, the record reveals the gain proportion increasing over time. It was just 43.9 percent during the 2000/2003 decline. That ratio rose to 51.0 percent in the following recovery; stayed at 51.7 percent between the top of 2007 and the bottom of March 2009. Since then, 61.7 percent of the following days closed with higher prices.
DJIA -.36 percent
NASDAQ .00 percent
S&P500 -.47 percent