Fourth Direction Change in the Last Four Days
The ups and downs now extend to four straight days - only the 37th repeat in the more than 3,000 trading days in this century. Will tomorrow bring another reversal, with prices declining on the last trading day of the week?
In the past, prices on the following day declined nearly twice as often as they increased. There were 23 declines but only 13 advances. The diagram locates these days, with the red circle indicating the losing days and the green triangle showing the positive closes.
However, other, more precise or definitive signals do not confirm this feature. For example, these days account for .94 percent of all closes during the 2000/2003 decline; they increase to 2.25 percent for the 2007/2009 decline. Similarly, the 2003/2007 expansion had 1.30 percent while the current recovery from the 2009 bottom has just .7 percent, so far.
Yet that six of these 36 days took place before, during, and after the October 2007 peak forces significant consideration of the thesis that this market could be topping off.
DJIA 1.24 percent
NASDAQ .63 percent
S&P500 1.08 percent