May 7, 2012 A Mixed Day
The DJIA, off for the fourth day in a row, lost -.23 percent, while the NASDAQ and the S&P500 gained 05 and .04 percent. These changes are far from robust or significant in their relative size. The DJIA has near 1500 losing days since the beginning of 2000, with more than 1,100 deeper or more negative than today’s -.23 percent.
Similarly, the S&P500 and the NASDAQ have more than 1,5000 closes larger than today’s gains.
More significant than these size comparisons is where, or when, in the past these combinations occurred.
The diagram shows just one of these days happened during a period of rising prices; further, this took place at the bottom of price decline.
The other three came while prices were in decline from their 2000 top. While the market turned higher shortly after the last of these, prices declined substantially after the first two.
All together, if these data points lie in our future, they do not promise further appreciation.
DJIA -.23 percent
NASDAQ .05 percent
S&P500 .04 percent
