December 21, 2011 Another Down Signal
With the NASDAQ off while the DJIA and the S&P500 posted their second gain in a row, todays pattern is the 32nd repeat of this combination since the beginning of 2000. The diagram locating these days reveals that their positions are indicative of falling prices.
This then is the third recent close having the same pattern that characterized previous days when the market was heading down.
The record shows this combination representing 1.48 percent and 1.70 percent of all days when the market trend was down; the equivalent figures for the two upturns is .78 and .85 percent.
Similar evidence concerns the following day: the S&P500 moved higher on 67 and 56 percent of the closes during the two declines. Prices moved up just 43 percent in both expansions.
We present this outlook based only on these averages, without performing statistical tests that indicate the significance of these differences.
DJIA .04 percent
NASDAQ -.99 percent
S&P500 .19 percent
