December 14, 2011 Third Decline in a Row
Todays pattern of three successive down days is the 57th repeat in this century not a common result given the 3,000 trading days since 2000. A noteworthy similarity exists also in the size of todays markdowns and the average change of these 57 previous results: they are near equal. Todays DJIA fall is -1.10 percent, compared to -.93 percent of the previous mean. It is -1.55 percent for the NASDAQ, almost identical to the -1.47 percent average; the S&P500 lost -1.13 percent, while the previous triple declines centered at -1.17 percent.
These narrow differences, between todays and the typical change over the last 12 years suggest a constant, permanent relationship.
The diagram locates these days, and identifies the following days changes. A significant difference exists between bear and bull markets. The number of increases and decreases is the same when prices trend down, but when prices are on the rise, increases dominate the following day.
DJIA -1.10 percent
NASDAQ -1.55 percent
S&P500 -1.13 percent
Our computer system is up again, after several painful days of sleuthing although problems persist.