September 30, 2011 Worst Drop in a Week


 

 

         Losses exceeding more than two percent pushed prices back to last Thursday’s levels. Prices moved down all day and never recovered. It was the NASDAQ’s third decline in a row, but just the first for the DJIA and the S&P500, after their declines on yesterday.

 

        It is the 18th repeat, since January 2000, of this pattern.  The diagram shows the S&P500 closes for this period and identifies the dates of these previous occurrences.

 

        Note how more often these days happen during bull markets, and how rarely during periods of declining prices. Whereas the tone of the market –the commentary explaining the fall in prices- is down.

 

      Nevertheless, as readers of this commentary well know, these previous and recent patterns have been identified most often with bull markets.  

 

        The diagram also indicates the direction of price changes on the following day.  While gains outnumber declines, because that margin is merely 14 to 12, it is not possible to make a reliable projection.

 

The outlook, published yesterday for today’s market –declines- is   correct.

 

DJIA             -2.16 percent

NASDAQ     -2.63 percent

S&P500       -2.50 percent

 

 

n-down-three-d-and-s-down-1.gif

 

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