September 29, 2011 A Split Day
Prices moved down all day, but near the end the DJIA and the S&P500 moved higher, gaining 1.30 percent and .81 percent; the NASDAQ, however, failed to make it out of the red, closing down -.43 percent.
Todays analysis, therefore, reflects the history of +1,+1,-2, for the S&P500, DJIA and the NASDAQ, combined with Tuesdays pattern +3 for all three indices.
Only four such days happened since the turn of the century. Importantly for understanding the future, three happened during the 2003/2007 expansion and one just last month. August, as we know, endured a large loss. To sum up the past, todays pattern tends to occur when prices trend higher.
Accordingly, todays pattern, like many other recent closes, belongs in the prices are rising category.
Yesterdays projection of higher prices for today was partially correct: The NASDAQ fell. The outlook for tomorrow is negative; the past saw declines twice as often as gains
DJIA 1.30 percent
NASDAQ -.43 percent
S&P500 .81 percent