USMarketView

August 1, 2011                   New Market Pattern Again

 

 

Since all three indices declined again, repeating Friday’s ‘never before’ pattern, a projection based on history is unavailable. Nevertheless, a closer, perhaps different insight becomes available.

 

The DJIA has now posted its seventh straight decline, only the 46^th such series since 1950. Four occurred since 1999.

 

The S&P500’s sixth straight loss is the fifth repeat in this century, with 104 other closes going back to 1950.

 

Finally, the NASDAQ fall for the second day in a row is its 1,123^rd overall and the 335^th in this century. (Note: it is logical that the shorter the daily run total, the more frequent its occurrence.)

 

We project Tuesday’s closes by using the above individual index records. Both the DJIA and the NASDAQ show an equal number of gains and losses on the following day. However history reveals a more favorable outlook for the S&P500, since it moved higher on four out of five closes on the following day.

 

DJIA            -.09   percent

NASDAQ    -.43   percent

S&P500       -.41   percent

 

This entry was posted on Monday, August 1st, 2011 at 12 042011000000Mon, 01 Aug 2011 16:22:16 +0000 and is filed under Market Report. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.