Archive for July, 2011

July 13, 2011 Positives Rule the Day

Wednesday, July 13th, 2011


 

 

With all three indices ending higher, the possible downturn scenario of the past two days is off the table for now. Though advancing, the gains are modest: the NASDAQ result, up .54 percent, ranks as the 981st  in size since 1999. The DJIA and the S&P500, with increases of  .20 percent and .31 percent, have similar positions in terms of size.

 

Yet despite their small advances, these closes do not fit into the same, possible falloff in future prices projection mold, as did the results of the previous two sessions.  We shall continue monitoring for this eventuality and report changes as they occur.

 

Today marks the 28th repeat of the pattern   +1/-3 since 1999; that is, a gain following three declines. In the past, price changes on the following day divided evenly between advance and decline.

 

 

DJIA               .20  percent

NASDAQ       .54  percent

S&P500          .31  percent

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July 5, 2011 Small Changes Yield a Positive Outlook

Tuesday, July 5th, 2011


 

 

The NASDAQ extended its positive streak to six days, but the DJIA and the S&P500 fell. Yet with all three the price changes not far from zero, the focus is

on today’s pattern: +6  for the NASDAQ and -1  for the others. Of the 36 previous repeats, 7 happened since 1999.

 

Only one of these seven shared a bear market; that was in 2001. Further, on the following day, all three indices were down, with losses ranging from  -1.3 to more than -3 percent.  

 

The good news is that the other six occasions happened when prices were moving higher. Four during the 2003/2007 expansion and the last two since 2009, the start of the current recovery.

 

Moreover, on the next trading day, prices moved up; with all three indices gainers on each of these six sessions.

 

We consider these repetitions in good times support for believing that the market will move higher.

 

 

 

DJIA               -.10  percent

NASDAQ        .35  percent

S&P500          -.13  percent

July 1, 2011 Prices Move Up Again

Friday, July 1st, 2011

July 1, 2011             Prices Move Up Again

 

 

 ‘A perfect week’  is a good summary to describe the five consecutive advances of the DJIA, the NASDAQ and the S&P500. While each of these averages, separately, has attained and even bettered five straight advances, there are only 33 other closes, since 1950, when all three, together, moved up for five straight days. Further, today’s collective achievement is only the 10th since 1999.

 

Obviously, prices move higher during these episodes, yet unlike many other recent patterns that shared, or were contiguous with, significant up or down price trends, these five-in-a-row days fail to fit into such a relationship.

 

Note that the focus of the analysis so far is on a five-day run of all three indices. However, there are far more sessions than these nine when any individual index has achieved runs of five or more positive days in succession. During the past twelve years, the NASDAQ has posted 114 occasions with more than four successive advances. Similarly, the DJIA has 84 and the S&P500 closed with 77.

 

Another meaningful feature of the week is that the NASDAQ recovered and passed its 2007 high; it had reached this point earlier this year, in May.

 

Finally, yesterday’s projection, of a price decline for today, missed the mark. As for the following day, the record shows more gains than losses, although a forecast based on nine observations is more conjecture than analysis.  

 

DJIA               1.36  percent

NASDAQ        1.53  percent

S&P500           1.44  percent