July 5, 2011 Small Changes Yield a Positive Outlook


 

 

The NASDAQ extended its positive streak to six days, but the DJIA and the S&P500 fell. Yet with all three the price changes not far from zero, the focus is

on today’s pattern: +6  for the NASDAQ and -1  for the others. Of the 36 previous repeats, 7 happened since 1999.

 

Only one of these seven shared a bear market; that was in 2001. Further, on the following day, all three indices were down, with losses ranging from  -1.3 to more than -3 percent.  

 

The good news is that the other six occasions happened when prices were moving higher. Four during the 2003/2007 expansion and the last two since 2009, the start of the current recovery.

 

Moreover, on the next trading day, prices moved up; with all three indices gainers on each of these six sessions.

 

We consider these repetitions in good times support for believing that the market will move higher.

 

 

 

DJIA               -.10  percent

NASDAQ        .35  percent

S&P500          -.13  percent

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