June 28, 2011 Prices Increase more than One Percent
Todays second advance in a row beat yesterdays gains. The NASDAQ led the pack, increasing 1.53 percent. The S&P500 added 1.29 percent and the DJIA tacked on 1.21 percent. The frequency of this pattern -much greater than in most recent sessions- is 537 since 1950, with 207 since the end of 1999.
Rising prices saw most of these two-gains-in-a-row days, with 38 in the current upswing and 97 in the 2003/2007 bull market. The declining years had 28 and 41 incidents. Yet these numbers fail to show an association with rising- or falling- prices. While the largest percentage more than eight percent-crossed the tape during the earlier rising price period, the following decline is in second place, with a 7.89 percent rate.
Turning to tomorrows market, the data of the past do not allow a positive outlook. Though the NASDAQ had a third advance 53 percent of the time, both the DJIA and the S&P500 posted losses with a frequency of about 60 percent.
We realized yesterdays positive projection for today, given the overwhelming proportion of advances with that pattern in the past.
DJIA 1.21 percent
NASDAQ 1.53 percent
S&P500 1.29 percent