March 30, 2011 Repeat Repeats Again
Once more, as the day before, the pattern of changes – +2/-1/+3 – replicates the array of March 24, Thursday of last week. Accordingly, the analysis and projection of the earlier session hold for this close.
Then, the history of this pattern showed an almost equal number of increases and decreases for the following day. Further, it also revealed that the magnitudes of the daily changes less than a full percentage point- dominated the expansions of 2003/2007 and the present growth since March 2009. This outlook then remains unchanged for today.
However, the recovery rate for each of these three indices has changed since they reached their last highs on February 18, 2001. The diagram shows the time path of these ratios, as well as a horizontal line at those earlier values.
Whereas the NASDAQ still sports the best performance, it has fallen two percentage points from its previous level during this interval of 28 trading days. The DJIA, however, while declining also, fell by only .29 percent points. That is just about one tenth of the NASDAQ loss. The S&P500s proportion similarly reduced its disadvantage to the leader, falling by just .94 percentage points.
Thus, not every aspect of the market remains unchanged, and of course, these differentials lead to profit [and loss] opportunities.
DJIA .58 percent
NASDAQ .72 percent
S&P500 .67 percent