March 24, 2011 Sturdy Gains
Prices rose near double yesterdays rates and like yesterday, the projections faced in the wrong direction. As for forecasting Fridays action based on the pattern of changes, the record shows about the same number of advances as declines.
However, consider the average of all daily changes with todays pattern of two gains following one loss, that is +2/-1. The diagram plots these 87 experiences for the S&P500 since the beginning of 2010. Contrary to what might be expected as rational, these changes are greater during eras of falling prices than when the market is rising.
Therefore, during the 2000/2003 decline the average daily S&P500 change was 1.71 percent, but in the following 2003/2007 expansion, that number fell to .68 percent.
Furthermore, this identical configuration exists for the NASDAQ with 2.91 percent compared to .97 percent in these two periods- and the DJIAs 1.63 percent average when prices are falling larger than the .63 percent average change in the following expansion.
While some explanation needs to reveal the why of this seeming contradictory price behavior, nevertheless, it can be used, together with todays changes nearer the expanding than the contracting averages, to infer that prices are increasing.
DJIA .70 percent
NASDAQ 1.41 percent
S&P500 .93 percent