January 19, 2011 Sharpest Drop for NASDAQ and S&P50 since November

 

The NASDAQ fell  -1.46 percent and the S&P500 lost  1.01 percent, enduring their worst performance since November 23. However, the DJIA, in sharp contrast backed off just -.11 percent.

Today’s pattern for all three indices stands at    -1/+2/-1 or one down day, after two advances which followed one negative day. In the past, the market posted 46 days with this pattern, with 30 since January 2000.

The record promises a favorable view for tomorrow, with 18 advances outnumbering 12 declines.

January sees many forecasts for the coming year; we will be doing some today and more in the next several dates. The technique of the diagram below uses the change between the first and last trading day of January to project the market for the rest of the year.

 

 monthly-and-annual-change-sp.gif

 

 

With the dots identifying the January change and the solid line the annual percent change, it is difficult to infer a meaningful and a numerical relationship. Nevertheless, the regression equation explained  30 percent of the years’ variation.


DJIA                   - .11  percent

NASDAQ           -1.46  percent

S&P500               -1.01  percent

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