December 28, 2010 Fourth Small Change Day


 

The top gainer today is the DJIA. Its rise of  .18 percent is more than twice the size of the  .08 percent S&P500 gain; the NASDAQ’s loss of   -.18 percent is the second smallest daily modification since last week.

This stability could be the result of the holidays’ relaxation spirit; or that prices are hovering near their equilibrium. But we can also attribute it to year end weariness, a factor not applicable only to this year.

Indeed, the variance-to-median ratio of the December market since 2000, comes to a much smaller number than of all the other months of the year. The average daily change of the NASDAQ over the first 11 months comes to  .063 percent, which is far larger than the .047 percent average daily December variation.

The ratio of the December variance to median change is just 17; whereas the other-11-months variance of 3.53 is more than 50 times larger than the average daily change of  .063 percent.

This proportion holds also for the S&P500, with its 11-month ratio of 44 double the 21 December proportion.

However, the DJIA does not fit into this mold. Although its December average daily change of  .030 percent is smaller than the .041 percent 11-months change, its December variance to median change of  44 exceeds the 11-month ratio of 42.

 


DJIA                     .18 percent

NASDAQ          - .16 percent

S&P500                .08  percent

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