Today followed yesterdays inter-session form, leaving the deeper, early losses behind, but nevertheless with the NASDAQ off -1.07 percent, the S&P500 down -.61 percent and a decline of -.42 percent for the DJIA.
The pattern now stands at -3/+1, or three losses following Wednesdays gain. Now the 54th experience since 1950, and the 27th in this decade, this configuration implies another loss for tomorrow should the historical experience be replicated.
Even with the recent losses, this recovery, since the bottom of 2009, is keeping pace with the previous, 2003 to 2007, upturn. Todays diagram compares the present price path of the S&P500 (red) with the 2003 (black) track, by overlaying one on the other. Currently 434 days since the bottom, little if any difference exists between these two experiences.
Of course this eye-balling fails to lock in the continuation of the past pattern. Indeed, one hopes that the current price path will scoot up faster however, the record reveals that our present recovery has not lagged, but is similar to the rising prices of 2003/2007.
DJIA -.42 percent
NASDAQ - 1.07 percent
S&P500 -.61 percent
