November 15, 2010 Not Much Change — Plus Two Rallies

 

 

Prices moved higher for most of the day but by the close, they stayed at Friday’s levels. While the DJIA moved up .08 percent, -.17 percent was shaved off the NASDAQ, and -.12 percent off the S&P500. The resulting pattern -three straight declines for the NASDAQ and S&P500; a plus day for the DJIA- is the 18th repeat since 1950 but only the 8th in this century.

 

Losses outnumbered gains on the following day, since January 2010; furthermore, the last four incidents were all negative.

 

Almost ‘identical’ describes this year’s two rallies. The earlier upswing lasted 55 days; so far, the current increase also stands at 55. Of course, only the future will reveal whether it also halted at this point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additionally, the figure reveals a singular similarity in their daily advances. The blue dots (the February to April rally) and the red ones (the current, August plus trend) cover not only the identical price range but also the same number of days. Indeed most of the 55 blue dots seem interchangeable with the 55 red ones.

 

A word of caution, however: at this point all we know is the similarity so far this year; that’s nice to know, but it’s not a forecast.

 

 

 

DJIA                                               .08 percent

NASDAQ                                      -.17 percent

S&P500                                      -.12 percent

 

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