Prices galloped higher at the beginning -with the S&P500 up more than 1 percent- then fell; at the end the S&P500 increase had fallen to just .18 percent. Similarly, the DJIA closed up .35 percent and the NASDAQ moved just .09 higher.
This positive close, the second in a row, following a one day decline, is the 85th since the beginning of 2000 and the 192nd overall. The NASDAQ continued to move higher 48 times, falling on 36 days. The S&P500 rose 44 times and fell 40 times; the DJIA’s 48 declines, however, outnumbered the 36 gains.
Today’s diagram compares the price paths of the current cycle with those of the previous cycle. Its 2000 top, in blue, is placed to coincide with the October 9, 2007 peak of the current cycle (in red). Whereas this cycle bottomed in March, 2009, the previous one experienced a much longer downturn.
Yet, since the start of this year, the S&P500 seems to parallel the indecision, at this time point, of the earlier cycle. Accordingly, it raises the possibility that the recent reversal, and recovery, of the rising price line may continue for a while before this market establishes a clear direction.
DJIA .35 percent
NASDAQ .09 percent
S&P500 .18 percent