Although prices drifted down only slightly, that move stopped the latest streak at five straight advances for the NASDAQ and four positive days in a row for the DJIA and the S&P500. Therefore today’s pattern for the NASDAQ is -1/+5; it is -1/+4 for the other two averages. However, because only five previous days exist -and all occurred before 2000, their discussion provides little insight into the market structure. The batch is too small, and too old, to allow any meaningful insights.
Today’s commentary focuses on the record of sessions following streaks of four and five day increases. The NASDAQ’s, for example, posted 72 five day advances larger than yesterday’s 1.70; on the following day, the three indices had median declines of -.28 percent for the S&P500 and -.16 percent for the DJIA; the NASDAQ itself, however, gained .10 percent. These numbers cluster around today’s closes of -.36 percent for the S&P500; -.01 percent for the DJIA and the NASDAQ change of -.24 percent.
Similar rates, although positive, apply to the four day change rate of the S&P500; its 1.78 percent was bettered 475 times since January 2000. Further, yesterday’s DJIA four day rate, of 1.35 percent ranks as number 655 since 2000. Thus the proposal that yesterday and today display uncharacteristic behavior remains unpersuasive.
DJIA - .01 percent
NASDAQ - .24 percent
S&P500 -.36 percent