As in yesterday’s blog, the focus remains on the four gains in a row by the DJIA and the S&P500 while the NASDAQ now has five straight advances. Only 11 such combination of increases have occurred since 1950, with just one in this century, on May 20, 2005.
Whereas yesterday’s projection strongly favored a further advance -that was realized today- the record of the next day came in less favorable. Yes, the odds for the NASDAQ come in at six gains against five losses, the other two indices show eight declines and three advances. Further, all three indices fell on the most recent experience, on May 20, 2005.
The diagram below plots the total four day advance against the S&P500 closing prices since January 2000. Surprisingly, the graph indicates that the larger four day gains correlate with declines in prices, and the opposite holds for the smaller four day totals. More on this in a later blog.
DJIA .69 percent
NASDAQ .96 percent
S&P500 .71 percent